Linkfest
Så er det igen tid til at dele min linksamling med Jer. De to mest læsværdige indlæg er, efter min mening, det af Richard Russell og det omkring interessen for “absolut-afkastmodeller”. Det første indlæg fordi Russell på bedste pædagogiske vis formår at rammesætte vigtigheden af renters renteeffekten, når man investerer (eller låner penge for den sags skyld). Det sidste indlæg fordi det ligger sig utroligt meget op af det, som jeg arbejder med i min Langsigtede TrendModel: markedstiming. Interessen for markedstiming er nu pludselig eksploderet (se blot på alle de forskellige hedgeprodukter) 10 år efter, at vi gik ind i et sekulært bearmarked for aktier. Markedstiming er ellers fortsat et fy-ord i akademiske kredse og de officielle udtalelser fra banker og finanshuse. Men det er efter min mening den eneste måde, man kan forblive investeret lang ind i pensionsalderen, medmindre man er en exceptionelt dygtig “stockpicker”. Det er jeg ikke.
When do money managers like to buy stocks? (Trading Markets):
Do money managers pile into the stocks at the end of the month in anticipation of 401k and savings money coming in? Well it looks like they do…big time!
Who needs the trading day? (Bespoke Investment):
…SPY is up 194% since it began trading…, the compounded return of buying at the close and selling at the open has done much better than that at +378% over the same time period.
Important investment story, missed by nearly everyone (A dash of insight):
I could hit the popularity highlights tomorrow with an article about why this is a “sucker’s rally,” and explaining that you should be happy that you missed out since it shows how smart you are. Instead, I am going against the flow.
Absolute-return investing: The new black (Smart Money):
…each of us is an absolute-return investor with one goal only: making money over time. That’s not achieved by always being right on the market , but by maintaining a disciplined focus so that you’re always profitable. And as we age, the importance of an absolute return gets even more pointed because our risk tolerance shrinks.
Rich mand, poor man – the power of compounding (The Big Picture):
…compounding may involve sacrifice…, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it’s boring until…the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
QE isn’t adding new liquidity to the market (Pragmatic Capitalism):
…the notion that QE is helping to fund the deficit is beyond nonsensical and displays a terrible lack of understanding when it comes to how the US monetary system functions. The only thing QE is doing is generating a huge amount of confusion…
10 investment ideas that STILL don´t work (Forbes):
Nr. 10: Thinking your portfolio is doing great because you are way up this year…after being way down last year.
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